Here it comes, I guess. MS is reminding Windows 8.1 users that its end-of-life (EOL) is imminent. With Windows 8.1 EOL January 2023 just around the corner, what else is MS saying? Find out in their Support article entitled “Windows 8.1 support will end on January 10, 2023.” Intentionally or not, it includes some amusing stuff. It also speaks to their philosophy and stance regarding Windows 11.

After Windows 8.1 EOL January 2023, Then What?

The afore-linked MS support article actually calls the transition that will occur on January 10, 2023 “end of support.” But because most readers know what EOL means I used it here. MS also recommends upgrading Windows 8.1 devices “to a more current, in-service, and supported Windows release.”

If Statcounter is correct, as of October 31, 2022, Windows 8.1 held a desktop market share of 2.45%. MS also puts the size of the combined Windows 10 and 11 device or OS instance population at 1.5B. That’s in keeping with Earthweb’s total count estimate from August 2022 of 1.6B. Statcounter grants Windows 10 and 11 combined 86.71% of the global desktop tally. By my reckoning, therefore, that puts the possible number of 8.1 devices at just over 42M.

Upgrade to Windows 11 on a New PC

MS also recommends for Windows 8.1 devices that don’t meet Windows 11 hardware requirements, that users “replace the device with one that supports Windows 11.” Indeed, it makes sense when refreshing PC hardware to go as modern and forward leaning as possible.

In fact, Windows 8.1 made its public debut (GA) on October 17, 2013. This date calculator tells me that was 9 years, 1 month, and 1 day ago as of today, November 18, 2022. That makes it almost inevitable that hardware purchased on or before the 2013 date doesn’t meet Windows 11 hardware requirements. The Gen8 “boundary date” actually falls in 2017-2018 time range.

What Happens to 8.1 After EOL (or EOS)?

MS won’t be offering an ESU (Extended Security Update) program for Windows 8.1. Thus it will no longer receive technical support, software updates, and security patches or fixes. According to WinAero, “Microsoft’s own products including Office 365 and the Store app will stop working.” That should be enough to convince most business users that it really is time to get off that bus.

For me, some of the humor in this otherwise doleful situation comes from Windows 8 and 8.1 general marketplace fate. It was never that popular to begin with, nor did it ever enjoy the kind of uptake in business that XP, 7 and Windows 10 achieved. To think that as many as 42M devices may be affected by this impending retirement is mostly a testament to how enormous the total Windows market really is. And to think it’s dwarfed by a factor of 3X or greater by smartphones is truly mind-boggling.

Even so, prodding a device population of 42 million onto Windows 11 and new PCs could be a boon to the sagging PC market. At a modest average price of $1K per unit (low for a business class PC nowadays, but higher for home/casual users) that’s a cool $42B in sales. It comes pretty close to “real money,” in my book.

Shout-Out to Sergey Tkachenko: the WinAero story cited in the concluding section of this story originally led me to the MS Support item that provides its focus and impetus. Thanks, Sergey!

OK, then: it’s finally happened. MS now makes downloadable Windows 11 available through its online store. The lead-in graphic pertains to Windows 11 Home, but there’s another, similar page for Windows 11 Pro. Prices are US$139 and US$199 respectively, which makes buying Windows 11 direct online an interesting proposition.

Why Is Buying Windows 11 Direct Online “Interesting?”

The prices for Home (US$139) and Pro (US$199) very much represent MSRP numbers. That is: they set the upper bound on what you must pay to acquire a legit Windows 11 license of either type. A quick search on “Windows 11 pro key purchase” or “Windows 11 home key purchase” shows plenty of etailers offering substantial discounts on those numbers. Some of them are so cheap, in fact, that I have trouble contemplating them as absolutely legit.

Even big etailers such as Newegg, Best Buy, CDW and so forth, offer discounted versions of these OSes. Admittedly some of those are for OEM use. Those are supposedly good only for a one-PC install on a machine for resale to a third party, but I’m not aware of MS enforcing that restriction on users purchasing such a license for appropriate use on any PC they own.

Why Buy From MS, Then?

Convenience, guaranteed legitimacy, and automatic licensing are probably the main reasons why some buyers will turn to MS for these license/download combinations. Those who know how to shop around can do better, to be sure. But those factors can be compelling for those leery of stepping afoul of scams and disallowed uses of seemingly legit license keys.

I’m more than just a little curious to see what kind of buying volumes emerge from this MS offer. Likewise, I’m hopeful MS may actually tell us something about ensuing activity. They don’t always share such data, though. Even official Windows user numbers come only sparsely — the last such “report” covered Windows 10 By The Numbers. It dates back before the pandemic.

OK, then: I was pretty much on the money yesterday when I speculated about Windows 11 22H2. A May 24 Windows Hardware Compatibility blog post — shown as the lead-in graphic above — totally confirms this. Indeed, Build 22621 takes RTM role for OEMs in the run-up to its release later this year.

If 22621 Takes RTM Role, Then What?

Here’s a quote from my May 24 piece Windows 11 21H2 Hits Broad Deployment:

As I’ve already reported on May 16, Beta Channel Build 22621 is very likely to RTM as 22H2 in a short while. That makes 22H2 GA likely in September or October.

The lead-in graphic (see red boxed text) confirms that Build 22621 is the “Windows 11, version 22H2 certfication build.” That makes it the starting point for the images that OEMs will build to load onto machines sold after the 22H2 GA date whenever that might be.

And, as for that date, later on in the afore-cited Windows HCL blog post it says:

Partners looking to achieve compatibility for systems shipping with Windows 11, version 22H2 Release may use drivers for components that achieved compatibility with Windows 11, Version 21H2 until Sept 5^th, 2021

To me that puts GA date sometime after September 5, and seems to confirm my speculation that this would occur in September or October of this year. Unless something unforeseen occurs — and it could — September 6 is suddenly looking possible. Stay tuned, though: as usual, I’ll keep tracking this and let you know what I learn.

With some consistency and frequency, most of my go-to Windows news sources report the same thing. That is: the latest Beta Channel Build 2221, is likely to go out to OEMs as the “Release to Manufacturing” (RTM) version for Windows 11. This raises the question “Could Build 22621 be RTM version?” I’m inclined to believe it might be, so please let me explain why. . .

Repeat: Could Build 22621 Be RTM Version?

Here are my reasons for believing that indeed, 22621 could be an RTM candidate if not THE RTM candidate for Windows 11:

Timing: MS has promised a 22H2 Windows 11 release, which means sometime between July 1 and December 31, 2022. Given that the usual delay from RTM to public release varies from as little as 12 to as long as 20 weeks over the life of Windows 10, a similar range seems likely for 11 as well. Given 22621 came out on May 11, that would put general availability between July 27 and September 21. This makes good sense to me. OEMs need time to get their collective acts together, and to get ready to deploy new images for the next feature update on their (mostly) consumer grade equipment.

Insider Channel Divergence: As I reported here on May 12, 22621 represents the divergence of Beta and Dev Channel Insider versions. MS forked the Insider channels so it could concentrate on the next Feature update in the Beta Channel, while working on future features for a presumptive 23H2 release in the Dev Channel. Stands to reason they’d have forked when they were getting close enough to recognize a possible RTM in the Beta Channel.

22621 Announcement blog post: Combine the opening statement of “small set of fixes” with “preview experiences that are closer to what we will ship to our general customers” and you get something pretty much like a “closing in on RTM” impression from this post.

Winver Label: look it says right in the lead-in graphic “Version 22H2.” What more do you want by way of (potential) proof?

It’s Not a Sure Thing, But…

Indeed, MS will make changes to 22621 as and when user telemetry indicates a need for same. That goes double if bug reports start proliferating. But, absent such spurs to additional action and related changes, 22621 seems pretty close to what is probably already going into OEM intake processes. Stay tuned: I’ll keep you posted as things develop from here!

OK, then: MS is making Windows 11 available for purchase in the form of boxed USB flash drives for both Pro and Home versions. Take a look at this Amazon Search and you’ll find prices all over the place. This could easily lead to Windows 11 OS purchase follies for those willing to shop around . . . and around . . . and around. The lead-in graphic shows one instance for US$149 for Windows 11 Pro, despite MSRPs of US$199 for that same version, and US$139 for Home.

What Makes Windows 11 OS Purchase Follies Likely?

A quick look at the search results show that prices range from a low of US$112 or so to a high of US$199 for Pro, and US$99 to a high of US$139 for Home. Given that it’s new to the market, I’d expect the range to widen and the number of options to skyrocket.This could make shopping overly interesting, if you ask me.

On the other hand, VG Soft is currently offering Windows 10 Pro in boxed, USB form for a mere US$85 on Amazon. The tag line on the product listing itself says: “free upgrade to Windows 11.” Why on earth pay more for native Windows 11 (either flavor) when you can get Pro for US$27-115 less?

I can’t think of a single good reason, either. As long as Windows 10 is cheaper than 11, and the free upgrade offer stands, this is surely the best way to go. That is, unless you have unused, valid Windows 7 or 8 keys around: those you can still upgrade to 11 as well, entirely for free.

Cheers!