I just read a fascinating story from the man himself — Paul Thurrott, that is — over at his website. Entitled “Windows 11 Usage Share Is Struggling…” it raises some interesting questions. Chief among these is “When deciding Windows 10 versus Windows 11, what do business users get?”

Thurrott’s analyses lead him to this conclusion: “Not enough to justify migration.” If necessary, add “…if hardware refresh is required” to that statement. FWIW, I agree. However, I’m not as inclined to finger-point at MS for market manipulation as he is. Let me explain…

Windows 10  versus Windows 11 Is a No-Op

Looking back at typical business migrations as far back as I can remember (the Windows 3.x era, circa 1991), I see a consistent pattern. It explains why business uptake of Windows 11 remains somewhat scant.

Here ’tis: It usually takes 2-3 years for businesses to get serious about migrating Windows versions. And then, that’s only if  the version of Windows is judged “successful” (not Windows Me, Vista, or 8/8.1, for example). Right now, it’s been just over a year since Windows 11 released: October 4 was the anniversary date. Thus, it’s simply too soon for most migrations just yet.

Thurrott and readers make at least two valid points

(a) for a good portion of the installed PC base, Windows 11 won’t run (40-50% by most estimates, in fact)
(b) most businesses manage their own refresh cycle timing, and aren’t inclined to let MS dictate when that should happen.

All this said, I don’t think even MS can derail all of the prior migration history it already knows about, points (a) and (b) notwithstanding. My gut feel is that something else is up beyond seeking ways to force business users forward faster.

Windows 10 EOL Remains Unchanged

October 14, 2025 is now about three years distant. This acts as a full-stop for most business. They don’t ordinarily want to pay for extended support  unless stuck between rock and hard place. (Example: US DoD for Windows XP and 7, on the way to Windows 7 and 10, respectively.)

Various sources put the PC refresh interval in business globally between 4 and 10 years, with the most common recurring value at 5 years. Depending on where organizations are in that cycle, I guess at least 80 of businesses would refresh anyway before Windows 10 hits EOL.  CPUs and TPMs in use in early 2018 define the boundary between what’s in and what’s outside of Windows 11 requirements. That puts the maximum interval for refresh at about 7 years and 9 months (7.75 years). IMO, that’s longer than normal for most concerns.

New PCs purchased since 2019/2020 will meet Windows 11 requirements as a matter of course. Thus it’s really PC’s purchased before January 2018 (or older models purchased through 2020, no doubt to obtain steep discounts) that really come into play.

My best guess is that, as with prior major versions of Windows (3.1, 95, 2000, XP, 7, and 10 — see the pattern?), 11 migrations will get serious in late 2023 and throughout 2024. That’s just in time to stay ahead of EOL for Windows 10. It’s also in tune with most prior migration cycles. Need I say more? I think not…

FYI, IDKT means “I didn’t know that.” I suspect the rest of the headline may likewise provide new info for other readers as well. This morning, I ambled over to the Store to check updates and a new Web experience pack update 421.20070.615.0 was applied. Just for grins, I visited the Store page and saw a user comment on this topic. It basically says “Windows Web Experience Pack Enables Widgets.” What of it?

What Windows Web Experience Pack Enables Widgets Means

The “Most helpful favorable review” under the WWEP feature also indicates that if one uninstalls it, Widgets quit working. And if one then restores the WWEP, Widgets return to work. Pretty conclusive, if you ask me.

So I went looking for MS “Official info.” And sure enough, here’s what it says on the MS Support page for WWEP update how-to:

Some Windows 11 features, like Widgets, are delivered through Microsoft Store updates. If you’re having problems with the Weather widget or aren’t able to find some features that were announced for Windows, you might need to update the Windows Web Experience Pack from the Microsoft Store.

Other than this support item and the Windows Store entry, though,. there’s surprisingly little info available about WWEPs.

Coming at Widget from the Development Side

OK, then. Knowing that MS is opening up widget development to third party developers, I instead went looking for related info. I found several interesting items:

• Windows.Developers: Latest Windows 11 features for developers (hmmm… nothing about widgets there)
• Windows.Support: Stay up to date with widgets (no mention of WWEP)
• Windows.App.Development: Create your first WinUI 3 (Windows App SDK) project (no mention of WWEP, or widget examples)

I’m not really seeing much useful description, examples, how-tos or other stuff to explain how third parties can build and deploy widgets. Maybe we’re not quite there yet? Hard to figure out what’s going on, if that’s not the case…

Does anybody else see irony in this? If you check the lead-in graphic for this story, you’ll see it captures the header of the Windows 11 known issues and notifications document. The section I show is dated May 17. It reads (in part): “Windows 11 is designated for broad deployment.” Thus, when I claim that Windows 11 21H2 hits broad deployment that’s almost verbatim.

So, where’s the irony? We’re taking about 21H2. It has an RTM date of June 24, 2021, and a GA date of October 5, 2021. This is late May 2022. As I’ve already reported on May 16, Beta Channel Build 22621 is very likely to RTM as 22H2 in a short while. That makes 22H2 GA likely in September or October. To me, the irony is strong. As the older version gets fully broadcast, the new one is entering the pipeline, heading in the same direction.

What Windows 11 21H2 Hits Broad Deployment Means

Simply put, this means MS is not longer withholding an upgrade offer of Windows 11 21H2 to any qualified PCs. Previously, they’d been holding back on machines with known issues such as device or driver incompatibilities. Now, it’s open season for anyone with an eligible PC. In part, this tells business users that “Windows 11 is ready for prime time.”

This comes at roughly the same time that Panos Panay delivered a Computex keynote in which Windows 11 figures strongly. In that address, he touted Windows 11 in a string of superlatives. Windows 11, he avers, is MS’s highest rated, highest quality OS ever, with faster business adoption than “in any previous version of Windows.”

Interestingly, Panay also mentioned that “Windows 10 had that great moment” (emphasis mine). He went on to say that “But Windows 11 in its moment …[is]…driving in the right direction for our customers every day.” Paul Thurrott interprets this to mean “…you shouldn’t expect any meaningful updates to Windows 10 going forward.” FWIW, I agree.

Too Much Windows 11 Drama

Lots of news outlets online are expressing dismay and disbelief in reaction to Panay’s keynote. I’m not upset, and I think I understand what’s going on. Panay is working to move the business base to dig into 11 and to get the long, slow, deliberate migration process going. Given that business usually waits for the first “real upgrade” to a new OS to start its processes forward, I see this more an an announcement that “The upgrade is coming. Time to get serious about migration.” more than anything else.

Hyperbole is to be expected in trade show keynotes. I see a more serious and not at all sinister purpose at work. Call me naive, or even a Polyanna, but this looks like a calculated wake-up call to me.

Here’s an interesting bit of administrivia. Upon reading at OnMSFT that MS had snazzed up its Dev Channel dialog box for Windows 11, I went looking for same. That proved a bit more challenging than I initially expected. But I eventually got past finding new Windows 11 Shutdown dialog box, and made it appear. It serves, in fact, as the lead-in graphic for this very story (see above).

It Was Tricky, Finding New Windows 11 Shutdown Dialog Box

The usual method is to employ the Alt+F4 keyboard shortcut. But on my Lenovo X12 hybrid tablet PC that did precisely nothing. Then I found a source with something like this tell-tale sentence:

On some laptops it may also be necessary to press the Function (Fn) Key as well.

That turned out to be just the trick I needed to get the keyboard shortcut to work. Indeed, it’s what allowed me to produce — and then screen capture — the lead-in image for this story.

What IS New in Dev Channel Shutdown Dialog Box?

It’s kind of hard to tell just from the screenshot what’s new. For comparison, here’s what the Windows 10 version looks like:

Notice it prominently features the Windows 10 logo at the top of the dialog box. Notice also its corners are squared, not rounded. AFAIK that’s about it for what’s new.

That said, in keeping with a sparer and more spacious UI in Windows 11, it’s a bit easier on the eyes. IMO it’s also a bit easier to read and understand. For me, the learning came from producing the dialog box more than its contents. But hey, that’s why I have so much fun messing around with Windows. Cheers!

Very interesting. I’ve taken some time to explore and play with the latest Dev Channel build. Mostly notably Build 22610 brings Explorer TaskMgr changes to look and feel. You can see this pretty strongly in the Explorer screencap above, and in the Task Manager screencap that follows.

Task Manager gets a cleaner, less cluttered look (Details view on display), but… [Click image for full-sized view.]

Build 22610 Brings Explorer TaskMgr Changes Explored

On the Explorer side of things, I see no toolbar ribbon in a sparser toolbar overall. Mouseover pop-ups require clicking a menu item before they’ll appear (I’m almost fluent in the new iconography, but occasionally need a reminder). The new look of the Details pane (far right) is pretty neat, IMO: I like the look and layout. That makes me more inclined to use it. Check out the new thumbnails view for a LOT more of the same kind of thing, too (icon at far lower right).

Switching over to Task Manager, the same sparse and spare look also comes into play . Navigation switches from a tab bar at the top to left nav icons. Again, I’m going to have to master the iconography, but mouseover pop-ups appear without doing anything to prompt them. There’s a new “Efficiency mode” right-click item on the Details pane that lowers power allocation and warns of potential resulting instability. Could be good for laptop/tablet users runnning on battery.  Lots of interesting changes so far. I need to explore further and learn more before I feel like I really understand all the differences. That should be fun!

Net-Net Nut

Overall, I’m liking what I’m seeing quite a bit. I’m coming to prefer the look, feel and behavior of Windows 11 over Windows 10. It’s been slow but steady coming on. These latest changes make the newer OS more compelling, visually, and two of its most common and important tools a little easier to work in and use. As far as I’m concerned, I give the latest version two solid thumbs up!

Earlier this week, MS sent an email to Windows Insiders. It included a link to a YouTube video. It’s dated June 28, 2021. It’s entitled “Windows 11 Insider Story — How We Made the Start [Menu].” Alas, this revived but older piece about the Windows 11 Start menu ignites user fury worldwide. I mean: people are seriously aggravated.

Note: The comment obscured in the lead-in graphic by category data reads “It’s really easy to design something that you like…” A small part of the flap is that this sentiment is contrary to prevailing responses from actual Windows 11 users. While I’m not as taken aback as many on this topic, I’ve had my own issues with the Start Menu over the past 10 months, for sure.

Why Windows 11 Start Menu Video Ignites User Fury

Paul Thurrott’s coverage of this item makes a good example. In fact, it’s something of a nonpareil in its incredulity and scorn.  Thus, I quote the first bit to illustrate the reactions it’s provoking:

If you have any hope at all that Microsoft put any thought into the design of the Windows 11 Start Menu, do not watch this video. If on the other hand, you hate yourself and everything you care about, this is a fantastic way to develop a drinking problem.

I cannot believe they published this video. It makes what was bad even worse.

You can find similar stories at other Windows news and info outlets, including Windows Latest. In the current climate of misinformation, Microsoft’s blithe assertions about listening to and learning from user input is almost scary. But it’s a year old, people. And it’s based on the earliest version of Windows 11 ever previewed. Come on!

Houston … err, Redmond … We Have a Problem

Indeed, the Start Menu in Windows 11 has been a constant source of consternation, upset and sometimes outright hostility pretty since Day 1. Remember: the Windows 11 Insider Preview also went public on June 28, 2021. I’m a daily reader of all the active threads on ElevenForum.com. Thus, I can personally attest that the Windows 11 start menu is a constant and ongoing cause for chatter, comment, complaints and more.

This same impression is pretty consistent across all the public feedback channels I can easily access, including Microsoft Answers and various Microsoft forums. Ditto for chatter on the MS news and info sites. Thus, the video comes off as either disingenuous or seemingly, from some alternate reality.

All this said, the situation is somewhat a case of “Much ado about nothing.” The feedback from users is pretty consistent that the Windows 11 Start Menu still needs work, and reasonably specific about what kinds of things are needed or wanted. I have to believe that MS really is listening and that they will get it right over time. But they’re not there yet, however much this year-old item might imply otherwise. I’m sure the tempest will soon die down, and we can all get back to work.

I did find Thurrott’s comments darkly funny, and hope you got a chuckle from them, too.

Though the numbers vary between AdDuplex and StatCounter, the growth rate for Windows 11 for March 2022 shows only slight change.  For the former, share went from 19.5 to 19.7%; for the latter, from 7.89 to 8.45%. Not much growth in Windows 11 uptake and deployment March 2022, in other words. What does it mean? I have some ideas, so please let me share them.

Windows 11 Uptake and Deployment March 2022 Is Consumer Driven

Aside from Microsoft’s own in-house deployment of 190K-plus copies (see this Thurrott.com story with MS pointers for more info), major corporate or organizational migrations to the new OS are mostly still pending. This is no surprise, because migrations usually take a year or more to plan, and at least 6 months to complete. Double those numbers for the largest organizations. Simply put: business use of Windows 11 for medium-sized businesses and larger is slim to none.

So who’s using Windows 11? Aside from pilot projects and evaluations (which are ongoing in business or organizational circles), there are two major populations running Windows 11:

1. Enthusiasts, power users and Windows aficianados (in which group I count myself) who have upgraded from Windows 10 to Windows 11, or performed clean installs on new builds or wiped systems. I’m guessing there are 100-200 million such users globally, with somewhere between 250 and 500 million PCs involved. With 11 PCs here at Chez Tittel, I’m an outlier on the high end, but nowhere near the top of that heap.
2. PC buyers who purchase systems with Windows 11 pre-installed. With 340 million PCs purchased in 2021, and north of 350 million projected for 2022, at least 40% are likely to include Windows 11. That’s 300M-plus PCs!

This is my foundation for claiming 500M PCs could be running Windows 11 by the end of 2022. Right now, I’d be surprised if that number exceeds 300M. But it’s still a consumer/end-user thing, and likely to stay that way until 2023 and beyond.

The Long Tail Goes On and On…

I had my eyes checked late last month. Last year, all of the shop’s systems still ran Windows 7. Now, the front of the house (receptionist, sales staff, technicians) are on Windows 10. Both of the on-staff ophthalmologists, however, are still on 7. I have to guess that for most small-to-midsize operations that’s a pretty normal thing. Bigger companies are more likely to be on 10 now that EOL support for Windows 7 is so expensive, and “running naked” (i.e. unsupported) so dangerous and unattractive.

With EOL for Windows 10 not until October 2025, there’s still plenty of time to start thinking about Windows 11 migrations . . . next year!